When interest rates on longer-term debt drop below rates on shorter-term debt, the yield curve is said to invert, which has often historically been a signal of an approaching recession (Investopedia - Yield Curve). The curve for 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds inverted in July 2022 (NBC News). The outcome will be determined using daily US Treasury Department data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity" (FRED). The yield curve will be considered to have ceased to be inverted if 2-year and 10-year bond yields are reported as equal for a given day (i.e., 0.00 as reported by FRED).

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The question closed "Before 21 September 2024" with a closing date of 27 August 2024.

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