When will the yield curve for 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds next cease to be inverted?
Closed Aug 27, 2024 09:30PM UTC
When interest rates on longer-term debt drop below rates on shorter-term debt, the yield curve is said to invert, which has often historically been a signal of an approaching recession (Investopedia - Yield Curve). The curve for 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds inverted in July 2022 (NBC News). The outcome will be determined using daily US Treasury Department data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity" (FRED). The yield curve will be considered to have ceased to be inverted if 2-year and 10-year bond yields are reported as equal for a given day (i.e., 0.00 as reported by FRED).
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The question closed "Before 21 September 2024" with a closing date of 27 August 2024.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
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Before 21 September 2024 | 77% | |
Between 21 September 2024 and 15 November 2024 | 18% | |
Between 16 November 2024 and 10 January 2025 | 3% | |
Between 11 January 2025 and 7 March 2025 | 1% | |
Not before 8 March 2025 | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 29 |
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 139 | |
Number of Forecasts | 153 |
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 315 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |