What will Donald Trump's favorability rating be as of 4 October 2024, according to FiveThirtyEight?
Closed Oct 04, 2024 07:01AM UTC
The question will be suspended on 3 October 2024 and the outcome determined using chart data provided on FiveThirtyEight's "Do Americans have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump?" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of the launch of this question, Trump's favorability rating on 26 July 2024 was 42.9%. The data for 4 October 2024 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 9 October 2024.
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The question closed "At least 42.0%, but less than 44.0%" with a closing date of 4 October 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Lower than 38.0% | 0% | |
| At least 38.0%, but less than 40.0% | 1% | |
| At least 40.0%, but less than 42.0% | 8% | |
| At least 42.0%, but less than 44.0% | 89% | |
| At least 44.0%, but less than 46.0% | 2% | |
| At least 46.0%, but less than 48.0% | 0% | |
| At least 48.0%, but less than 50.0% | 0% | |
| At least 50.0%, but less than 52.0% | 0% | |
| 52.0% or higher | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 64 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 161 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 245 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 426 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
