Between 29 July 2024 and 31 October 2024, how many total fatalities will occur in Venezuela due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?
Closing Nov 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Protests have broken out across Venezuela after Nicolás Maduro was declared the winner of an election marred by fraud claims (US News & World Report, Al Jazeera, BBC). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) Explorer (ACLED). On the left side of the screen, (1) select "Fatality Counts," (2) select "All Event Types," (3) select "Custom Date Range" and set the date range as appropriate, (4) leave blank, (5) select only "Venezuela," (6) select "No," (7) select "Country," (8) select "No," (9) select "No," (10) select "Yes" and choose "Month," and click "Run Calculations." As of the launch of this question, ACLED reported 138 total fatalities in Venezuela between 29 July 2023 and 31 October 2023. Data will be accessed for resolution no sooner than 15 November 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 150 | 64.80% | 0% | -3.10% | +38.10% |
| At least 150, but fewer than 350 | 30.50% | 0% | +3.80% | +5.50% |
| At least 350, but fewer than 550 | 2.40% | 0% | -0.70% | -17.20% |
| At least 550, but fewer than 750 | 1.40% | 0% | 0% | -21.00% |
| At least 750, but fewer than 950 | 0.90% | 0% | 0% | -4.20% |
| At least 950, but fewer than 1,200 | 0% | 0% | 0% | -1.10% |
| 1,200 or more | 0% | 0% | 0% | -0.10% |