Oiram18 and Remo-P ask:
When will Boeing Starliner astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore safely return to Earth?
Closed Sep 27, 2024 07:01AM UTC
As of the launch of this question, two US astronauts, Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore, remain stranded on the International Space Station (ISS) as NASA evaluates various problems with their Boeing Starliner spacecraft (Newsweek, France 24, Space.com). To safely return, the crew must return to Earth alive. If an attempted return to Earth fails for either or both astronauts, the question will close "Not before 27 September 2024" as of the date of the failed attempt.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Not before 27 September 2024" with a closing date of 27 September 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 16 August 2024, with both together using the Starliner spacecraft used to launch them to the ISS | 0% | |
| Between 16 August 2024 and 29 August 2024, with both together using the Starliner spacecraft used to launch them to the ISS | 0% | |
| Between 30 August 2024 and 12 September 2024, with both together using the Starliner spacecraft used to launch them to the ISS | 0% | |
| Between 13 September 2024 and 26 September 2024, with both together using the Starliner spacecraft used to launch them to the ISS | 0% | |
| Before 16 August 2024, with both together using a different spacecraft | 0% | |
| Between 16 August 2024 and 29 August 2024, with both together using a different spacecraft | 0% | |
| Between 30 August 2024 and 12 September 2024, with both together using a different spacecraft | 0% | |
| Between 13 September 2024 and 26 September 2024, with both together using a different spacecraft | 2% | |
| Before 27 September 2024, the astronauts will safely return to Earth separately | 0% | |
| Not before 27 September 2024 | 98% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 41 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 161 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 138 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 426 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
