Tylerdurden03 asks:
Between 1 July 2024 and 30 June 2025, will the US experience two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth?
Closing Jul 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases three estimates for each quarter: advance, second, and third (BEA - Release Schedule). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using the advance estimate for the second quarter of 2025 (Q2 2025), expected in July 2025, and the third estimates for all other quarters, typically released in the subsequent quarter. The third estimate for Q1 2024 indicated that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent for the quarter (BEA - GDP Third Estimate Q1 2024). Prior to the question's launch, the last time the quarter-on-quarter US GDP growth rate was negative was Q2 2022 (BEA - Third Estimate Q2 2022).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4.64% | +0.26% | -0.36% | -0.36% |
| No, but there will be at least one quarter of negative real GDP growth | 18.80% | +0.34% | -1.20% | -8.20% |
| No, and there will be zero quarters of negative real GDP growth | 76.56% | -0.61% | +1.56% | +8.56% |