How much "cash on hand" will Donald Trump's presidential campaign have in the 2024 presidential election cycle as of 30 September 2024, according to the Federal Election Commission?

Started Aug 02, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Since replacing President Biden as the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Vice President Harris has seen more successful fundraising for her party (AP, ABC News). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the FEC once the campaign's financial reports through 30 September 2024 are published on the FEC's website, expected in October 2024 (FEC, click on the candidate's name to see "ENDING CASH ON HAND" under "Cash summary"). As of 30 June 2024, Trump had $128,096,869.68. A chart showing fundraising data for Trump over time is maintained by Ballotpedia (Ballotpedia, see "Cash on hand" chart). Please note that these figures do not include political action committee receipts.

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The question closed "At least $100 million, but less than $150 million" with a closing date of 1 October 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than $50 million 1%
At least $50 million, but less than $100 million 10%
At least $100 million, but less than $150 million 63%
At least $150 million, but less than $200 million 23%
At least $200 million, but less than $250 million 2%
$250 million or more 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 30
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 136
Number of Forecasts 108
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 310
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.603015
2.
-0.423015
3.
-0.400997
4.
-0.131638
5.
-0.116978

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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