Will the Federal Reserve announce a reduction in the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate before close of business on 18 September 2024?
Closing Sep 18, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the near future have risen as inflation and the US labor market have cooled (AP, US News & World Report, NY Post). Conditional announcements (e.g., if the labor market deteriorates, if inflation falls) would not count, and the date a cut would take effect is immaterial. The last time the Federal Reserve announced a cut to the US federal funds target range was 15 March 2020 (Federal Reserve).
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, a reduction of 0.25% or less | 77.00% | -5.00% | 0% | 0% |
| Yes, a reduction of more than 0.25%, but no more than 0.50% | 21.00% | +5.00% | +2.00% | +7.00% |
| Yes, a reduction of more than 0.50% | 0% | 0% | -1.00% | -2.00% |
| No | 2.00% | 0% | -1.00% | -5.00% |