Will the Federal Reserve announce a reduction in the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate before close of business on 18 September 2024?
Closed Sep 18, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the near future have risen as inflation and the US labor market have cooled (AP, US News & World Report, NY Post). Conditional announcements (e.g., if the labor market deteriorates, if inflation falls) would not count, and the date a cut would take effect is immaterial. The last time the Federal Reserve announced a cut to the US federal funds target range was 15 March 2020 (Federal Reserve).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Yes, a reduction of more than 0.25%, but no more than 0.50%" with a closing date of 18 September 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes, a reduction of 0.25% or less | 71% | |
| Yes, a reduction of more than 0.25%, but no more than 0.50% | 26% | |
| Yes, a reduction of more than 0.50% | 1% | |
| No | 2% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 86 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 164 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 352 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 431 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
