Will the Federal Reserve announce a reduction in the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate before close of business on 18 September 2024?
Closed Sep 18, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the near future have risen as inflation and the US labor market have cooled (AP, US News & World Report, NY Post). Conditional announcements (e.g., if the labor market deteriorates, if inflation falls) would not count, and the date a cut would take effect is immaterial. The last time the Federal Reserve announced a cut to the US federal funds target range was 15 March 2020 (Federal Reserve).
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The question closed "Yes, a reduction of more than 0.25%, but no more than 0.50%" with a closing date of 18 September 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes, a reduction of 0.25% or less | 71% | |
| Yes, a reduction of more than 0.25%, but no more than 0.50% | 26% | |
| Yes, a reduction of more than 0.50% | 1% | |
| No | 2% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 86 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 161 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 352 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 426 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
