LucaM asks:
How many female commissioners will be elected to the European Commission (EC) by the European Parliament (EP) in 2024?
Started
Aug 16, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 02, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Closing Dec 02, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
The EP last elected the EC on 27 November 2019, with 11 females and 15 males (France24, EP - Press Release 27 November 2019, EP - Infographic). For the purposes of this question, EC President Ursula von der Leyen is not considered to be a commissioner. If the EP has not elected the EC commissioners before 1 December 2024, the close date will be extended.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 9 | 2.60% | 0% | +0.30% | +0.20% |
| 9 or 10 | 88.50% | +0.50% | +0.70% | +0.40% |
| 11 or 12 | 7.60% | -0.50% | -1.00% | -0.90% |
| 13 or 14 | 0.80% | 0% | 0% | +0.30% |
| 15 or more | 0.50% | 0% | 0% | 0% |