What will be the highest reported Arctic sea ice extent in 2025 as of 4 April 2025?

Started Aug 16, 2024 05:00PM
Closed Mar 22, 2025 10:00PM (15 days ago)
Challenges
Tags

Arctic sea ice extent, a measure of the ocean area in the northern hemisphere that is at least 15% sea ice, has trended down in past decades (National Snow & Ice Data Center). The question will be suspended on 3 April 2025 and the outcome determined using graph data as provided by the National Snow & Ice Data Center's (NSIDC's) "Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph" at approximately 5:00PM ET on 4 April 2025 (Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph, click "Arctic" on the left side above the graph, About Charctic Data). The question will close as of the date of the highest reported Arctic sea ice extent (the most recent if there is a tie for the highest extent). Other site data is immaterial. As of the launch of this question, the highest daily reported Arctic sea ice extent in 2024 was 15.008 million sq. km on 14 March.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "At least 14.3 million sq. km, but less than 14.6 million sq. km" with a closing date of 22 March 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 14.0 million sq. km 0%
At least 14.0 million sq. km, but less than 14.3 million sq. km 0%
At least 14.3 million sq. km, but less than 14.6 million sq. km 99%
At least 14.6 million sq. km, but less than 14.9 million sq. km 1%
At least 14.9 million sq. km, but less than 15.2 million sq. km 0%
At least 15.2 million sq. km, but less than 15.5 million sq. km 0%
15.5 million sq. km or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 53
Average for questions older than 6 months: 180
Number of Forecasts 500
Average for questions older than 6 months: 525
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.121057
2.
-0.110163
3.
-0.090902

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Mar 19, 2025 7:07AM PDT (3 days before close, question was 99% complete)
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username