What will Prime Minister Keir Starmer's approval rating be as of 7 February 2025, according to Politico?
Started
Aug 16, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing Feb 07, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Closing Feb 07, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
After leading the Labour Party to a dominant electoral win in July 2024, Prime Minister Starmer became the first non-Conservative Party PM in 14 years (AP). The question will be suspended on 6 February 2025 and the outcome determined using data as provided in Politico's "Poll of Polls" page for the UK no earlier than approximately 5:00PM ET on 14 February 2025 (Politico, use default "Smooth" view).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower than 32.0% | 81.83% | 0% | -0.17% | +20.83% |
| At least 32.0%, but less than 36.0% | 13.17% | 0% | +0.17% | -16.83% |
| At least 36.0%, but less than 40.0% | 3.28% | 0% | +0.28% | -3.72% |
| At least 40.0%, but less than 44.0% | 0.61% | 0% | -0.39% | -1.39% |
| At least 44.0%, but less than 48.0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| At least 48.0%, but less than 52.0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| At least 52.0%, but less than 56.0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| At least 56.0%, but less than 60.0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| At least 60.0%, but less than 64.0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 64.0% or higher | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Kier Starmer will cease to be the prime minister off the UK before 8 February 2025 | 1.11% | 0% | +0.11% | +1.11% |