Between August 2024 and January 2025, what will be the highest monthly global land and sea temperature anomaly, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)?
Closing Feb 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Recorded global surface temperatures have risen steadily over the past decades (NASA). The question will be suspended on 31 January 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using data published by NOAA, expected in February 2025 (NOAA, click "Download" for all data with the site's default settings [Monthly, Global, Land and Ocean, and CSV]). As of the launch of this question, the anomaly for January 2024 was 1.29°C.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lower than 1.00°C | 8.00% | 0% | -1.10% |
| At least 1.00°C, but lower than 1.10°C | 4.20% | 0% | -0.50% |
| At least 1.10°C, but lower than 1.20°C | 12.50% | -7.50% | -4.20% |
| At least 1.20°C, but lower than 1.30°C | 44.30% | +4.30% | +4.80% |
| At least 1.30°C, but lower than 1.40°C | 19.00% | +2.70% | -1.40% |
| At least 1.40°C, but lower than 1.50°C | 8.50% | +0.50% | +1.40% |
| 1.50°C or higher | 3.50% | 0% | +1.00% |