Which US presidential candidate will win the electoral vote for Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District?

Started Aug 19, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC

The 2024 race for the White House will be decided in battleground states (RealClearPolling, 270 to Win). The outcome will be determined based on which candidate wins the popular vote in the congressional district. Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that do not allocate their electoral votes solely to the winner of the statewide election (NPR).

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NOTE 21 September 2024: The question will close based on who wins the electoral vote associated with Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. The candidate who wins that electoral vote will control the outcome of the question, irrespective of whether the state changes how it allocates its electoral votes.


The question closed "The Democratic Party candidate" with a closing date of 5 November 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
The Democratic Party candidate 89%
The Republican Party candidate 11%
Someone else 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 59
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 161
Number of Forecasts 153
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 426
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.03444
3.
-0.03444
4.
-0.034183
5.
-0.033163

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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