Which US presidential candidate will win the electoral vote for Maine's 2nd Congressional District?

Started Aug 19, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC

The 2024 race for the White House will be decided in battleground states (RealClearPolling, 270 to Win). The outcome will be determined based on which candidate wins the popular vote in the congressional district. Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that do not allocate their electoral votes solely to the winner of the statewide election (NPR).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "The Republican Party candidate" with a closing date of 5 November 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
The Democratic Party candidate 16%
The Republican Party candidate 84%
Someone else 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 53
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 163
Number of Forecasts 162
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 430
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.312923
2.
-0.312923
3.
-0.281435
4.
-0.27401
5.
-0.257459

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username