As the Federal Reserve contemplates future interest rate cuts for the latter half of 2024, the central bank has continued to reduce the level of assets on its balance sheet as part of its program of monetary "quantitative tightening," which it slowed beginning in June 2024 (US News & World Report, Investopedia, Congressional Research Service). The question will be suspended on 17 December 2024 if still open and the outcome determined using information in the statements and implementation notes release by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) (Federal Reserve). As of the launch of this question, the total cap of assets was $60 billion each month, $25 billion in Treasury securities and $35 billion in agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) (Federal Reserve - Implementation Note 31 July 2024). A change in the amounts for Treasury securities and MBS that results in no net change from the total $60 billion will not count, and the date the change will take effect is immaterial.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.