What will be China's youth unemployment rate in November 2024?
Started
Aug 23, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
China restarted reporting its youth (ages 16 to 24) unemployment rate in January 2024 with a changed methodology after pausing for several months in 2023 (AP, Voice of America). Under the new methodology, the youth unemployment rate jumped to 17.1% in July 2024 (CNBC). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2024 and the outcome determined using National Bureau of Statistics of China data as reported by Trading Economics, expected in December 2024 (Trading Economics).
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 13.0% | 0.30% | -0.30% | -0.70% | -1.00% |
| At least 13.0%, but less than 15.0% | 4.40% | -1.50% | -3.10% | -1.80% |
| At least 15.0%, but less than 17.0% | 35.20% | -1.90% | +2.10% | +1.40% |
| At least 17.0%, but less than 19.0% | 46.80% | +7.70% | +8.20% | +4.20% |
| At least 19.0%, but less than 21.0% | 3.20% | -2.70% | -4.20% | -7.10% |
| 21.0% or more | 0.20% | -0.40% | -0.60% | -1.50% |
| China will not report its youth unemployment rate for November 2024 before 1 January 2025 | 9.90% | -0.90% | -1.70% | +5.80% |