Will Russian President Vladimir Putin attend the inauguration of the next Mexican president, scheduled for 1 October 2024?
Closed Oct 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Mexico has invited Putin to attend the inauguration of Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum (Texas Public Radio, TASS). Putin's potential attendance would be complicated by the issuance of a warrant for his arrest by the International Criminal Court, which obliges Mexico to arrest Putin should he enter the country (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Parliamentarians for Global Action). Putin must be physically present at the inauguration to count, which is scheduled for 1 October 2024 (AP).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | |
| No | 95% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 80 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 164 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 143 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 431 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
