What will be the yield for US 10-year Treasury securities on 31 December 2024?
Started
Aug 30, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 31, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Closing Dec 31, 2024 08:01AM UTC
The yield (or interest rate) of the 10-year Treasury is a major benchmark for finance in the US (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 30 December 2024 and the outcome determined using US Treasury data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). On 22 August 2024, the yield was 3.86%.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 2.00% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| At least 2.00%, but less than 2.40% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| At least 2.40%, but less than 2.70% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -0.08% |
| At least 2.70%, but less than 3.00% | 0% | 0% | -1.00% | -0.75% |
| At least 3.00%, but less than 3.30% | 0% | 0% | -1.00% | -5.00% |
| At least 3.30%, but less than 3.60% | 0% | -1.00% | -5.00% | -20.33% |
| At least 3.60%, but less than 3.90% | 11.00% | -1.00% | -5.00% | -25.67% |
| At least 3.90%, but less than 4.20% | 28.00% | -1.00% | -1.00% | +3.92% |
| At least 4.20%, but less than 4.60% | 45.00% | +2.00% | +10.00% | +33.58% |
| 4.60% or more | 16.00% | +1.00% | +3.00% | +14.33% |