What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for December 2024?
Started
Aug 30, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
The US unemployment rate began to rise in the summer of 2024, hitting a new multiyear high in July (AP, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using the Bureau of Labor Statistics' official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database when first released, expected in early January 2025 (FRED). As of the launch of this question, the unemployment rate April 2024 was 3.9%.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 3.7% | 0.88% | -0.06% | -0.06% | -1.12% |
| At least 3.7%, but less than 4.0% | 15.19% | -0.69% | -1.81% | -1.81% |
| At least 4.0%, but less than 4.3% | 56.81% | +3.06% | +4.18% | +15.81% |
| At least 4.3%, but less than 4.6% | 23.31% | -1.75% | -1.44% | -7.69% |
| At least 4.6%, but less than 4.9% | 2.75% | -0.38% | -0.69% | -4.25% |
| At least 4.9%, but less than 5.2% | 0.44% | -0.12% | -0.12% | -0.56% |
| At least 5.2%, but less than 5.5% | 0.31% | -0.07% | -0.07% | +0.31% |
| 5.5% or more | 0.31% | 0% | 0% | -0.69% |