What will be the US annual real GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2024?
Started
Aug 30, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED), expected in late January 2025 (FRED, BEA). As of the launch of this question, the real GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2023 was 3.4%.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Down by more than 3.0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Down by more than 1.5% but at most 3.0% | 0.10% | +0.10% | -0.10% |
| Down by more than 0.0% but at most 1.5% | 0.90% | +0.20% | -0.30% |
| Up by at least 0.0%, but less than 1.5% | 29.20% | +5.60% | +6.00% |
| Up by at least 1.5%, but less than 3.0% | 49.40% | -11.80% | -12.30% |
| Up by 3.0% or more | 20.40% | +5.90% | +6.70% |