When will Israel publicly announce that all Israeli citizens captured in the attack in southern Israel in early October 2023 have either been freed or are dead?
Started
Aug 30, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
Negotiations between Hamas and Israel continue for, among other things, the release of hostages taken in the early October 2023 attack on the country by Hamas and other groups (France 24, AP). As of 20 August 2024, Israel stated that 109 hostages were still being held, though many were believed dead (NPR). Israel announcing that a hostage or hostages are presumed dead would count as to those particular hostages, and whether an Israeli citizen holds dual citizenship is immaterial.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 11 October 2024 | 0% | 0% | 0% | -0.50% |
| Between 11 October 2024 and 20 November 2024 | 1.80% | -0.05% | -0.10% | -1.20% |
| Between 21 November 2024 and 31 December 2024 | 8.85% | -0.60% | -0.60% | -3.54% |
| Not before 1 January 2025 | 89.35% | +0.65% | +0.70% | +5.24% |