Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and those of a NATO member state resulting in at least three fatalities before 20 January 2025?

Started Aug 30, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 20, 2025 08:01AM UTC

NATO continues to support Ukraine's defense against Russia without direct involvement, though domestic political pressures continue to threaten unity (AP, NATO). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results in at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and/or law enforcement of either side. As of launch, there were 32 NATO member states (NATO). For the purposes of this question, members of armed forces fighting without command authorization are not considered "national military forces and/or law enforcement" (e.g., AP, BBC). The confrontation and fatalities must occur during the question's open period to count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 3.80% -0.20% -0.36% -2.70%
No 96.20% +0.20% +0.36% +2.70%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username