When will Brazil's court-imposed ban on "X" operating in the country be fully lifted?

Started Sep 6, 2024 05:00PM
Closed Oct 8, 2024 08:14PM (5 months ago)

On 30 August 2024, a Minister (i.e., Justice) of Brazil's Federal Supreme Court ordered "the immediate and complete suspension of the operation of X, formerly Twitter, throughout the national territory until the Court's judicial decisions are complied with and the fines applied are paid" after the company defied demands that it name a legal representative in the country (Supreme Federal Court of Brazil [in Portuguese, quotation translated by Google], Axios, NPR).

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The question closed "Between 6 October 2024 and 5 December 2024" with a closing date of 8 October 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 6 October 2024 3%
Between 6 October 2024 and 5 December 2024 80%
Between 6 December 2024 and 6 March 2025 6%
Not before 7 March 2025 11%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 34
Average for questions older than 6 months: 181
Number of Forecasts 127
Average for questions older than 6 months: 529
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.47043
2.
-0.451771
3.
-0.409514
4.
-0.387959
5.
-0.278159

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Sep 29, 2024 9:31PM PDT (9 days before close, question was 72% complete)
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