The 2024 race for the White House will be decided in battleground states (RealClearPolling, 270 to Win). The question will be suspended on 4 November 2024 and the outcome determined using election results as reported by the Associated Press. The margin will be determined by taking the percentage of the total major party vote (i.e., the number of votes for the Democratic candidate plus the number of votes for the Republican candidate) won by the Democratic Party candidate in the state and subtracting the percentage of the total major party vote won by the Republican Party candidate, and the lowest absolute value of the difference will determine the outcome. For example, assume that the Democratic candidate wins 9,852 votes and the Republican wins 10,148 votes, for a total major party vote of 20,000. In that scenario, with the Democratic candidate winning 49.26% of the major party vote in a state and the Republican candidate winning 50.74%, the value of the difference would be -1.48%, which has an absolute value of 1.48%. Votes for independents and third-party candidates are immaterial. If the outcome appears dependent on the disposition of legal disputes as to the validity of certain votes in a jurisdiction or jurisdictions, we will wait for the judicial outcomes of those disputes before resolving the question.

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