What will be the spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and the 2-year Treasury yield on 7 March 2025?
Started
Sep 06, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing Mar 07, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Closing Mar 07, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
When interest rates on longer-term debt drop below rates on shorter-term debt, the yield curve is said to invert, which has often historically been a signal of an approaching recession (Investopedia - Yield Curve). The question will be suspended on 6 March 2025 and the outcome determined using US Treasury Department data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity" (FRED). For 7 March 2024, the spread was -0.41%.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.60% or lower | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Higher than -0.60%, but at most -0.30% | 1.00% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Higher than -0.30%, but at most 0.00% | 18.00% | +3.00% | +7.00% | +10.00% |
| Higher than 0.00%, but at most 0.30% | 45.00% | +3.00% | +6.00% | +9.00% |
| Higher than 0.30%, but at most 0.60% | 31.00% | -3.00% | -4.00% | -6.00% |
| Higher than 0.60%, but at most 0.90% | 5.00% | -2.00% | -6.00% | -10.00% |
| Higher than 0.90%, but at most 1.20% | 0% | -1.00% | -3.00% | -2.00% |
| Higher than 1.20% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -1.00% |