What will be the spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and the 2-year Treasury yield on 7 March 2025?
Closing Mar 07, 2025 08:01AM UTC
When interest rates on longer-term debt drop below rates on shorter-term debt, the yield curve is said to invert, which has often historically been a signal of an approaching recession (Investopedia - Yield Curve). The question will be suspended on 6 March 2025 and the outcome determined using US Treasury Department data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity" (FRED). For 7 March 2024, the spread was -0.41%.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.60% or lower | 1.10% | 0% | -1.60% |
| Higher than -0.60%, but at most -0.30% | 6.60% | +0.50% | -0.90% |
| Higher than -0.30%, but at most 0.00% | 14.10% | +1.00% | +3.80% |
| Higher than 0.00%, but at most 0.30% | 22.90% | -2.30% | +4.80% |
| Higher than 0.30%, but at most 0.60% | 25.90% | -0.20% | -4.70% |
| Higher than 0.60%, but at most 0.90% | 23.90% | +1.80% | +2.10% |
| Higher than 0.90%, but at most 1.20% | 4.50% | -0.50% | -1.00% |
| Higher than 1.20% | 1.00% | -0.30% | -2.50% |