When will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) invade Lebanon with tanks and/or armored vehicles?
Closing Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
As fighting in Gaza continues, concerns remain that there may be a major escalation of fighting between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon (AP, BBC, France 24). For the purposes of this question, the IDF will be deemed to have invaded Lebanon if its forces, including ten or more tanks and/or armored vehicles, cross the "Blue Line" into Lebanon and remain in Lebanon for more than 36 hours (UN Interim Force in Lebanon, Britannica - Armoured Vehicle). Whether the IDF has invaded Lebanon will be determined using credible open-source media reporting. The question will close retroactively as of the beginning of the IDF invasion of Lebanon.
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Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
---|---|---|---|
Before 17 October 2024 | 42.36% | +19.27% | +33.33% |
Between 17 October 2024 and 23 November 2024 | 20.96% | +0.37% | +8.70% |
Between 24 November 2024 and 31 December 2024 | 8.93% | -4.34% | -2.83% |
Not before 1 January 2025 | 27.75% | -15.30% | -39.20% |