Captbullett asks:
Will Donald Trump be sentenced to serve time in prison for his New York state conviction on falsifying business records?
Closing Jan 18, 2025 08:01AM UTC
On 30 May 2024, Trump was convicted on 34 felony charges related to falsifying business records, but the judge has twice postponed sentencing (CNN, The Hill, Judge Merchan Letter 6 September 2024). A prison sentence fully suspended by the trial court judge will not count as being sentenced to serve time in prison (Cornell - Suspended Sentence). A sentence to "time served" will not count (Cornell - Time Served). The question will close early if the judge in the case postpones the sentencing to a date after 17 January 2025. Whether Trump is granted bail pending appeal in the event of a sentence to serve time in prison is immaterial.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, Trump will be sentenced to serve time in prison | 0.50% | +0.50% | -0.50% | -4.96% |
| No, Trump will be sentenced but not to serve time in prison | 7.71% | -1.29% | -8.29% | -28.62% |
| The judge will set aside the guilty verdict | 12.75% | -6.25% | -19.25% | +4.46% |
| Trump will not be sentenced for the conviction before 18 January 2025 | 79.04% | +7.04% | +28.04% | +29.12% |