Between 19 September 2024 and 7 November 2024, will the Federal Reserve announce a reduction in the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate?
Closed Nov 07, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the latter half of 2024 have risen as inflation and the US labor market have cooled (Yahoo [Fortune], Axios, Yahoo Finance). Conditional announcements (e.g., if the labor market deteriorates, if inflation falls) would not count, and the date a cut would take effect is immaterial. The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its November meeting is scheduled for 6-7 November 2024. As of 16 September 2024, the last time the Federal Reserve announced a cut to the US federal funds target range was 15 March 2020 (Federal Reserve). The question will close early upon an unscheduled announcement of a reduction.
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The question closed "Yes, a reduction of 0.25% or less" with a closing date of 7 November 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes, a reduction of more than 0.50% | 2% | |
| Yes, a reduction of more than 0.25%, but no more than 0.50% | 11% | |
| Yes, a reduction of 0.25% or less | 68% | |
| No | 19% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 181 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 135 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 569 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 308 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
