Will a winner of the 2024 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences have a faculty appointment at Harvard University or the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) when the prize is announced?

Started Sep 17, 2024 08:00AM UTC
Closed Oct 14, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Both Harvard and MIT have a long history of producing Nobel Laureates among both faculty and graduates (iSchoolConnect). The announcement of the winner or winners of the 2024 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences is scheduled for 14 October 2024 (Nobel Prize - Announcement Dates). A winner with a faculty emeritus title or affiliate faculty title at either institution when the prize is announced will count.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 14 October 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 49%
No 51%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 153
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 135
Number of Forecasts 278
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 308
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.553489
3.
-0.41423
4.
-0.380156
5.
-0.374574

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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