Will Nicolás Maduro be inaugurated as President of Venezuela before 12 January 2025?

Started Sep 17, 2024 08:00AM UTC
Closed Jan 10, 2025 03:00PM UTC

Incumbent President Maduro was declared the winner of Venezuela's 2024 presidential election by the Venezuelan National Electoral Council on 29 July 2024 amid widespread claims of fraud (CBC, AP, NBC News). The Venezuelan constitution states, in part, that "the candidate elected shall take office as President of the Republic on January 10 of the first year of his constitutional term, by taking an oath before the National Assembly" (Constitution of Venezuela). If Maduro either flees the country or dies before being inaugurated (i.e., sworn in), the question will close "No."

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 10 January 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 93%
No 7%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 237
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 159
Number of Forecasts 655
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 421
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.03575
3.
-0.03575
4.
-0.03575
5.
-0.035576

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username