Will a major party's presidential campaign concede defeat in the 2024 election before 29 November 2024?

Started Sep 20, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 06, 2024 09:30PM UTC

After the multitude of challenges to the results of the 2020 US presidential election, when a presidential campaign will concede defeat is a topic of particular interest for the 2024 election (The Hill, Politico). For examples of presidential election campaign concessions, see: Time, Newsweek, X - @realdonaldtrump). If a campaign concedes, the question will remain open for 24 hours in case there is a retraction (e.g., CNN). In case of a retraction, the question will continue to remain open without interruption. Acknowledging that another candidate will be certified as the victor in the election will be treated as a concession so long as the acknowledging candidate has no ongoing judicial appeals that could materially change the outcome of the election (e.g., Stacey Abrams in 2018 re 2018 gubernatorial election Quartz). A concession need not necessarily be personally made by the candidate, but such a concession would require evidence that it was authorized by the candidate. For the purposes of this question, the Democratic and Republican Parties are the major parties.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 6 November 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 71%
No 29%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 66
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 161
Number of Forecasts 173
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 426
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.858021
2.
-0.782277
3.
-0.778089
4.
-0.730217
5.
-0.69206

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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