After the multitude of challenges to the results of the 2020 US presidential election, when a presidential campaign will concede defeat is a topic of particular interest for the 2024 election (The Hill, Politico). For examples of presidential election campaign concessions, see: Time, Newsweek, X - @realdonaldtrump). If a campaign concedes, the question will remain open for 24 hours in case there is a retraction (e.g., CNN). In case of a retraction, the question will continue to remain open without interruption. Acknowledging that another candidate will be certified as the victor in the election will be treated as a concession so long as the acknowledging candidate has no ongoing judicial appeals that could materially change the outcome of the election (e.g., Stacey Abrams in 2018 re 2018 gubernatorial election Quartz). A concession need not necessarily be personally made by the candidate, but such a concession would require evidence that it was authorized by the candidate. For the purposes of this question, the Democratic and Republican Parties are the major parties.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.