How many travelers will the US Transportation Security Agency (TSA) screen between 1 October 2024 and 31 December 2024?
Started
Sep 27, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
Total air passenger traffic in the US has been running above pre-pandemic 2019 levels in 2024 (Statistica). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using "TSA checkpoint travel numbers" as reported by the TSA (TSA). Between 1 October 2023 and 31 December 2023, the TSA screened 219,999,101 travelers.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 212 million | 3.00% | -9.00% | -11.00% |
| At least 212 million, but fewer than 218 million | 6.00% | -5.00% | -9.00% |
| At least 218 million, but fewer than 224 million | 44.00% | +1.00% | +13.00% |
| At least 224 million, but fewer than 230 million | 36.00% | +7.00% | +7.00% |
| At least 230 million, but fewer than 236 million | 11.00% | +6.00% | +4.00% |
| At least 236 million, but fewer than 242 million | 0% | 0% | -2.00% |
| At least 242 million, but fewer than 248 million | 0% | 0% | -1.00% |
| 248 million or more | 0% | 0% | -1.00% |