How many total federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US in November 2024 and December 2024?
Closing Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Firearm sales in the US have fallen from record highs during the peak of the pandemic, which coincided with the 2020 presidential election (USA Today). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using data for November 2024 and December 2024 as reported by the FBI once December 2024 data are first available, expected in January 2025 (FBI). For November 2023 and December 2023, the FBI reported a total of 5,383,725 firearm background checks.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
NOTE 3 October 2024: The question description had indicated that there were 2,730,855 background checks in November and December 2023. That total only included December 2023. The combined total for November 2023 and December 2023 was 5,383,725, which has been revised above.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 4,800,000 | 0.80% | +0.10% | +0.20% |
| At least 4,800,000, but fewer than 5,200,000 | 9.50% | +1.80% | +3.70% |
| At least 5,200,000, but fewer than 5,600,000 | 35.00% | +8.80% | +7.10% |
| At least 5,600,000, but fewer than 6,000,000 | 27.60% | -6.20% | -2.00% |
| At least 6,000,000, but fewer than 6,400,000 | 15.30% | -2.30% | -2.50% |
| At least 6,400,000, but fewer than 6,800,000 | 6.90% | -1.50% | -2.80% |
| At least 6,800,000, but fewer than 7,200,000 | 3.80% | -0.60% | -2.00% |
| At least 7,200,000, but fewer than 7,600,000 | 1.10% | -0.10% | -1.70% |
| At least 7,600,000, but fewer than 8,000,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 8,000,000 or more | 0% | 0% | 0% |