&nbsp The Monkey Cage asks

Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. suspend immigration from any country designated as a state sponsor of terrorism or a terrorist safe haven?

Started Dec 27, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 27, 2017 06:00PM UTC

This question was resolves as "yes" with an end date of 27 January 2016 (US News, Yahoo! New, NY Times). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Part of President-elect Trump's plan for his first 100 days in office calls for the suspension of "immigration from terror-prone regions where vetting cannot safely occur" (NPR , NY Times). The president has the power to suspend by proclamation entry of any particular class of citizens from designated countries (8 USC §1182(f)). The U.S. Department of State designates countries as "Terrorist Safe Havens" (U.S. Department of State ) and/or "State Sponsors of Terrorism" (U.S. Department of State). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on Rex Tillerson's Confirmation or on the U.S withdrawing from NAFTA.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 77.00%
No 23.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 767
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 1198
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.230539
3.
-0.219345
5.
-0.218845

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username