Will Daniel Noboa be reelected president of Ecuador in 2025?

Started Sep 27, 2024 05:00PM
Closed Apr 13, 2025 07:01AM (10 days ago)

President Daniel Noboa is running for reelection in 2025 for his first full term since replacing former President Guillermo Lasso in 2023 (US News & World Report, BNamericas). The first round of Ecuador's next presidential election is scheduled for 9 February 2025, with a runoff scheduled for 13 April 2025, if needed (National Electoral Council [in Spanish]). If there is any ambiguity as to the outcome, the question will close upon officially announced results of the presidential election, irrespective of any judicial intervention. If either or both election dates are rescheduled to a date after 23 May 2025 or the election is canceled outright without being completed, the question will close "Another outcome."

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The question closed "Yes, but in the second round" with a closing date of 13 April 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, in the first round 1%
Yes, but in the second round 43%
No, he will lose in the second round 53%
No, he will lose in the first round 2%
Another outcome 2%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 38
Average for questions older than 6 months: 178
Number of Forecasts 141
Average for questions older than 6 months: 521
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.373733
3.
-0.34864
4.
-0.17778
5.
-0.125661

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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