Will Daniel Noboa be reelected president of Ecuador in 2025?
Closing Apr 13, 2025 07:01AM UTC
President Daniel Noboa is running for reelection in 2025 for his first full term since replacing former President Guillermo Lasso in 2023 (US News & World Report, BNamericas). The first round of Ecuador's next presidential election is scheduled for 9 February 2025, with a runoff scheduled for 13 April 2025, if needed (National Electoral Council [in Spanish]). If there is any ambiguity as to the outcome, the question will close upon officially announced results of the presidential election, irrespective of any judicial intervention. If either or both election dates are rescheduled to a date after 23 May 2025 or the election is canceled outright without being completed, the question will close "Another outcome."
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, in the first round | 26.40% | 0% | +8.00% | +12.70% |
| Yes, but in the second round | 55.70% | 0% | -2.50% | -0.20% |
| No, he will lose in the second round | 13.90% | 0% | -3.20% | -2.90% |
| No, he will lose in the first round | 3.00% | 0% | -1.40% | -8.20% |
| Another outcome | 1.00% | 0% | -0.90% | -1.40% |