What will be the average Air Quality Index value in New Delhi, India, in October 2024?

Started Sep 27, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 31, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Challenges
Tags

A report from Swiss air quality technology company IQAir indicated that 83 of the 100 cities with the worst air pollution in the world were in India in 2023 (CNN). The question will be suspended on 30 October 2024 and the outcome determined using data from AirNow once complete data for the month of October 2024 are available (AirNow.gov). To access the resolution data on the site, choose "New Delhi" under "Select a City," click on the "Historical" tab, and download the file for "2024 PM2.5 YTD." Add all positive valid data points for the column titled "AQI" (invalid entries are coded as -999, and valid data points are labeled "Valid" under "QC Name") with an "10" under "Month" and divide the sum by the number of valid data points. Averages in October 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 were, respectively, 178.58, 190.54, 144.37, 155.23, and 162.41. If the named source changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "At least 165.00, but less than 175.00" with a closing date of 1 November 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 115.00 0%
At least 115.00, but less than 125.00 0%
At least 125.00, but less than 135.00 0%
At least 135.00, but less than 145.00 0%
At least 145.00, but less than 155.00 1%
At least 155.00, but less than 165.00 5%
At least 165.00, but less than 175.00 86%
At least 175.00, but less than 185.00 8%
At least 185.00, but less than 195.00 0%
At least 195.00, but less than 205.00 0%
At least 205.00, but less than 215.00 0%
215.00 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 20
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 134
Number of Forecasts 155
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 307
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.096086
2.
-0.087913
3.
-0.065556
4.
-0.045593
5.
-0.045091

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username