What will be the year-over-year percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index Excluding Food and Energy (aka "Core") for April 2025?
Closing May 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC
The PCE Price Index, like the Consumer Price Index, is a measure of inflation used in the US and the measure preferred by the Federal Reserve (Investopedia - PCE, Federal Reserve - Inflation Target). The "core" PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, was running higher than the full PCE in August 2024 (CNBC). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2025 and the outcome determined using Bureau of Economic Analysis data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (FRED, click "Edit Graph" and change "Units" to "Percent Change from Year Ago"). As of the launch of this question, the annual percentage change in the PCE Price Index Excluding Food and Energy for April 2024 was 2.88506%.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 1.700% | 1.30% | 0% | -0.50% | -0.20% |
| At least 1.700%, but less than 2.000% | 12.60% | 0% | -1.50% | +5.20% |
| At least 2.000%, but less than 2.300% | 55.90% | 0% | -1.70% | +21.90% |
| At least 2.300%, but less than 2.600% | 17.80% | 0% | +2.20% | -6.50% |
| At least 2.600%, but less than 2.900% | 8.10% | 0% | +1.50% | -8.50% |
| At least 2.900%, but less than 3.200% | 2.70% | 0% | 0% | -10.20% |
| At least 3.200%, but less than 3.500% | 1.10% | 0% | 0% | -1.90% |
| 3.500% or more | 0.50% | 0% | 0% | +0.20% |