Marburg virus disease (MVD) is a filovirus which has an average fatality ratio of up to 88% (WHO - Marburg virus disease). On 8 September 2024, the first person infected with the virus in a new Rwandan outbreak died, and, as of 4 October 2024, 11 deaths in total have been reported in the country (Telegraph, AP). There are currently no available treatments or vaccines for MVD, but various vaccines are being trialed (WHO - Disease Outbreak News). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using information reported by the UK government or the BBC. Please note that no dashboard exists on MVD as of the launch of this question, but public data on a UK MVD outbreak could be provided via the United Kingdom Health Security Agency’s (UKHSA's) data dashboard (UKHSA). The transmission and death must both occur in the UK to count. For the purposes of this question, "UK" excludes overseas territories and crown dependencies.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 April 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.