Will Lebanon's parliament, the Chamber of Deputies, elect a new President of the Republic before 12 April 2025?
Closed Jan 9, 2025 12:30PM (3 months ago)
Lebanon hasn't had a president since Michel Aoun left office at the expiration of his term in October 2022, but Israel's battle with Hezbollah has prompted new efforts to fill the position (US News & World Report, Axios). The question will close "No" upon the calling of new parliamentary elections in the country without a new president having been elected. Replacement of the president by means other than election by the Chamber of Deputies will not count (Constitution of Lebanon).
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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 9 January 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 79% | |
| No | 21% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 29 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 179 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 75 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 523 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
