The Monkey Cage asks
Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. provide notice of intent to withdraw from NAFTA?
Started
Dec 27, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 30, 2017 06:59AM UTC
Closed Apr 30, 2017 06:59AM UTC
Challenges
Throughout President-elect Trump's campaign, he labeled NAFTA the "worst trade deal in history" and has repeated a commitment to either negotiating better terms with Mexico and Canada or withdrawing (Forbes, Washington Post, The NAFTA Secretariat). Under Article 2205 of the agreement, a party can withdraw six months after providing notice (CNN, The NAFTA Secretariat)
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If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether the DAPA program will be implemented before inauguration day or on Trump's Immigration Ban. This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 29 April 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 2.00% | |
No | 98.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 1161 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 189 | |
Number of Forecasts | 2218 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 545 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |