When will the United Nations Security Council give a mandate for a foreign (i.e., non-Israeli) peacekeeping force to operate in Gaza with the consent of Israel?
Started
Oct 18, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 21, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Closing Dec 21, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
Leaders in the Middle East and around the world are considering options for the "day after" fighting in Gaza ends, including a potential peacekeeping force (i24 News, Al Jazeera, Atlantic Council, NYU - Center on International Cooperation). Whether Israel has provided consent will be determined using credible, open-source reporting but must be current as of a mandate being given, and the timing of actual deployment is immaterial.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 10 March 2025 | 10.32% | 0% | -1.63% | +5.32% |
| Between 10 March 2025 and 30 July 2025 | 8.09% | +0.14% | -1.10% | +0.49% |
| Between 31 July 2025 and 20 December 2025 | 14.27% | +0.13% | +4.22% | +0.87% |
| Not before 21 December 2025 | 67.32% | -0.27% | -1.49% | -6.68% |