In 2016, the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) formed a cooperative agreement with various oil-producing nations to further coordinate global production (Vox, OPEC - Declaration of Cooperation). As of the launch of this question, the members of OPEC+ were Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia, Sudan, and South Sudan (OPEC - September 2024 Monthly Oil Market Report, see Table 5-7 on page 60 of the file). A party to OPEC+ publicly announcing that it will cease to be a party to OPEC+ in order to become an OPEC member state will not count. The last OPEC+ member to leave the agreement was Equatorial Guinea, which joined OPEC as a member state in 2017 (and would not have counted) (OPEC - Declaration of Cooperation). The date the member state ceases to be a party to OPEC+ is immaterial so long as a specific date that the departure is to take effect is within a year and a day of the announcement. For the purposes of this question, any change in status for Brazil is immaterial.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.