After a pair of military exchanges between Iran and Israel in April and October 2024, concerns over future military engagements persist (AP, Al Jazeera, BBC). The geographic origin of and weaponry used in a military strike will be immaterial so long as either 1) the weapon detonates or discharges on or over Israeli territory, or 2) the weapon is intercepted or destroyed while en route to Israeli territory. A cyberattack alone will not count. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. Actions not executed by Iran's national military forces will not count (e.g., rocket attacks by Hezbollah Al Jazeera). Public acknowledgment is not required, and the default evidentiary standard will be used, that being credible, open-source media reporting.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.