Will the International Criminal Court (ICC) issue an arrest warrant or warrants for any Israeli military and/or civilian leaders for reasons related to actions in the Gaza Strip or West Bank before 3 May 2025?
Closing May 03, 2025 07:01AM UTC
Israel voiced concern in late April 2024 that the ICC may issue arrest warrants for Israeli leaders over the war in the Gaza Strip, though no decisions had been made as of 31 October 2024 (US News & World Report, Guardian, The Conversation). A summons or summonses will not count (ICC, see under "Investigations"). Please note that the ICC is different than the International Court of Justice (ICJ) (CNN). For the purposes of this question, "leaders" means any military officer or civilian officeholder. If a warrant or warrants are issued for leaders other than Benjamin Netanyahu, the question will remain open.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, and an arrest warrant will be issued for Benjamin Netanyahu | 22.06% | +4.81% | +8.06% |
| Yes, but an arrest warrant will not be issued for Benjamin Netanyahu | 11.94% | +1.38% | -0.06% |
| No | 66.00% | -6.19% | -8.00% |