Will the International Criminal Court (ICC) issue an arrest warrant or warrants for any Israeli military and/or civilian leaders for reasons related to actions in the Gaza Strip or West Bank before 3 May 2025?
Closed Nov 21, 2024 11:30AM UTC
Israel voiced concern in late April 2024 that the ICC may issue arrest warrants for Israeli leaders over the war in the Gaza Strip, though no decisions had been made as of 31 October 2024 (US News & World Report, Guardian, The Conversation). A summons or summonses will not count (ICC, see under "Investigations"). Please note that the ICC is different than the International Court of Justice (ICJ) (CNN). For the purposes of this question, "leaders" means any military officer or civilian officeholder. If a warrant or warrants are issued for leaders other than Benjamin Netanyahu, the question will remain open.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Yes, and an arrest warrant will be issued for Benjamin Netanyahu" with a closing date of 21 November 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes, and an arrest warrant will be issued for Benjamin Netanyahu | 22% | |
| Yes, but an arrest warrant will not be issued for Benjamin Netanyahu | 12% | |
| No | 66% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 42 |
| Average for questions in their first 4 weeks: 95 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 71 |
| Average for questions in their first 4 weeks: 167 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
