Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of North Korea and those of Japan, South Korea, and/or the US in Asia or at sea resulting in at least three fatalities before 1 November 2025?
Closing Nov 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC
In October 2024, North Korea redefined South Korea as a "hostile state" while blowing up railway links between the two countries (France 24, War on the Rocks). Reports of North Korean troops entering Russia to join its fight in Ukraine have also raised concerns in South Korea for a possible broader regional escalation (BBC, MSN [Bloomberg]). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results in at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and/or law enforcement of either side. The fatalities must occur during the question's open period to count, and the fatalities must be the result of the same lethal confrontation to count. For the purposes of this question, "Asia" is that territory shown as Asia by Britannica, including the airspace overhead and territorial waters (Britannica, see map). "At sea" includes international waters and the airspace overhead.
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