Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of North Korea and those of Japan, South Korea, and/or the US in Asia or at sea resulting in at least three fatalities before 1 November 2025?

Started Nov 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC

In October 2024, North Korea redefined South Korea as a "hostile state" while blowing up railway links between the two countries (France 24, War on the Rocks). Reports of North Korean troops entering Russia to join its fight in Ukraine have also raised concerns in South Korea for a possible broader regional escalation (BBC, MSN [Bloomberg]). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results in at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and/or law enforcement of either side. The fatalities must occur during the question's open period to count, and the fatalities must be the result of the same lethal confrontation to count. For the purposes of this question, "Asia" is that territory shown as Asia by Britannica, including the airspace overhead and territorial waters (Britannica, see map). "At sea" includes international waters and the airspace overhead.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
Yes 18.25% +3.18%
No 81.75% -3.18%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username