Will the S&P 500 Index close lower by 4.0% or more in a single trading day before 31 May 2025?

Started Nov 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing May 30, 2025 07:01AM UTC

US equity markets performed well through the first three quarters of 2024, though various geopolitical and financial risks are concerns (MSN [Forbes], Yahoo [Bloomberg]). The S&P 500 Index is one of the most followed indices for equity markets in the world (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 29 May 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using data from S&P as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED, click "EDIT GRAPH" and change "Units" to "Percent Change"). The last time the index fell 4.0% or more in a single trading day was 13 September 2022.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Yes 45.11% -1.26% -0.94%
No 54.89% +1.26% +0.94%

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