How many Dáil (lower house) seats will Sinn Féin win in the next Irish general election?
Started
Nov 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 29, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Closed Nov 29, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
The next Irish general election is due in early 2025, with the popularity of the pro-Irish reunification party Sinn Fein facing scandals and internal division (BBC, Politico, Government of Ireland - Dáil Éireann). The close date for this question will be changed once the official election date is set.
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The question closed "Between 35 and 39" with a closing date of 29 November 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 20 | 2% | |
| Between 20 and 24 | 36% | |
| Between 25 and 29 | 17% | |
| Between 30 and 34 | 24% | |
| Between 35 and 39 | 16% | |
| Between 40 and 44 | 3% | |
| Between 45 and 49 | 1% | |
| 50 or more | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 15 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 133 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 40 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 304 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
