tabhuth_ asks:
Which US presidential candidate will win Iowa?
Started
Nov 03, 2024 03:50AM UTC
Closed Nov 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Closed Nov 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
Conflicting polls in Iowa in the days before the 2024 presidential election have put a spotlight on a state that Donald Trump twice won (CNN, The Hill). The outcome will be determined based on which candidate wins the popular vote in the state.
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The question closed "The Republican Party candidate" with a closing date of 5 November 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| The Democratic Party candidate | 36% | |
| The Republican Party candidate | 64% | |
| Someone else | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 92 |
| Average for questions in their first 4 weeks: 95 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 129 |
| Average for questions in their first 4 weeks: 167 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
